Was looking at the prediction market post by Andrew McAfee titled Mobs Rule, which in my opinion misses the point, he describes one of the companies he is involved in Crowdcast i started pondering about the validity of a prediction market as an enterprise 2.0 tool.
Taking on this tool has some distinct usage for businesses that is capable of generating value.
Avoiding the need to rely solely on the Project Management methodology to predict the delivery date of a product or the end of an it upgrade, adding to that the ability to predict the success of the latest campaign, is a extremely efficient tool that is able to generate significant advantages and better profit.
My personal problem with the Prediction Markets is its a self-fulfilling prophecy once the prediction is out, and it tends to direct the out come more then predict it.
The base product of Crowdcast uses an interface, from the demo, looking quite rudimentary and may be a bit too graphic, seems like it is not a poll like and uses adjustments to select a response.
I hope they have more interfaces that enable the users to make a selection though.
Crowdcast promise to bring the market internally and make the organization as the crowd to do the selection.
This is probably good in a very limited type of organizations, one that could have the internal critics, the huge ones. if you read te book the wisdom of crowds you are probably familiar with the two basic assumptions that the crowd needs to bet on the score and needs to be heterogeneous to achieve the best predictions.
So how can we make this a part of the toolset if the enterprise is not as big as it needs and certainly not as heterogeneous in the thought process and loyalty to the company.
I love the google prediction market experiment excerpt
In the last three years, Google has conducted the largest corporate experiment with prediction markets we are aware of. In this paper, we illustrate how markets can be used to study how an organization processes information.
We document a number of biases in Google